The Wealth Reports
Subscribe
  • Economy
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Trading
No Result
View All Result
  • Economy
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Trading
No Result
View All Result
The Wealth Reports
No Result
View All Result

Morgan Stanley outlines ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ scenarios for Chinese economy

January 16, 2025
in Economy
Morgan Stanley outlines ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ scenarios for Chinese economy

Investing.com– China’s economy shows resilience but faces potential challenges due to limited policy support and external headwinds, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts.

While recent export and consumption figures provide reasons for optimism, underlying concerns over fiscal and housing policy measures highlight a more cautious outlook, analysts said in a note.

In its latest research note, Morgan Stanley outlines “bull” and “bear” scenarios for the world’s second-largest economy.

On the positive side, Chinese export growth surged 10% in Q4 2024, up from 5.4% in the third quarter, driven by front-loaded shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential tariff changes under the incoming Trump administration, analysts wrote.

Consumption also showed strong momentum, with December sales of autos and home appliances benefiting from Beijing’s expanded consumer trade-in programs, potentially keeping GDP growth at 5% in annualized terms through Q1 2025.

However, Morgan Stanley analysts warn that these growth drivers might be short-lived.

Export front-loading and stimulus-induced consumer spending have reduced Beijing’s urgency for broader policy easing. In the housing market, softening prices and increasing discounts offered by sellers highlight weak buyer demand, according to Morgan Stanley.

Progress on reducing housing inventories remains limited, and local government bond issuance—key to infrastructure spending—continues at a sluggish pace despite measures to streamline approvals, analysts said.

Monetary policy space also appears constrained as Beijing prioritizes yuan stability amid global inflation risks, the analysts added. The potential for broader U.S. tariffs or evolving domestic social dynamics could change the outlook in later quarters, but current conditions suggest only moderate economic momentum.

This post appeared first on investing.com

Previous Post

China imposes provisional duties on US, EU, Japan, Taiwan industrial plastics

Next Post

Dollar steadies after cool inflation; sterling slips on weak growth data

Next Post
Dollar steadies after cool inflation; sterling slips on weak growth data

Dollar steadies after cool inflation; sterling slips on weak growth data

    Join our mailing list to get access to special deals, promotions, and insider information. Your exclusive benefits await! Enjoy personalized recommendations, first dibs on sales, and members-only content that makes you feel like a true VIP. Sign up now and start saving!

    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest

    Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options and How They Work

    Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options and How They Work

    May 20, 2025
    Mexico’s peso falls after Trump announces tariffs on Colombian goods

    Mexico’s peso falls after Trump announces tariffs on Colombian goods

    May 7, 2025
    Asia FX slips amid Trump tariff jitters; China factory data underwhelms

    Asia FX slips amid Trump tariff jitters; China factory data underwhelms

    May 7, 2025
    Dollar gains on tariffs fears; euro looks to ECB meeting

    Dollar gains on tariffs fears; euro looks to ECB meeting

    May 7, 2025
    The Wealth Reports

    Copyright © 2025 thewealthreports.com | All Rights Reserved

    Browse by Category

    • Economy
    • Forex
    • Stocks
    • Trading
    • About us
    • Contacts
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Email Whitelisting
    No Result
    View All Result
    • Economy
    • Forex
    • Stocks
    • Trading